[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 18 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 19 09:30:32 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region
1719 produced two C flares, the larger being a C6.5 event at
18/1823 UT, from the west limb. An associated CME does not appear
to be Earth-directed. A northern-hemisphere coronal hole is unlikely
to be geoeffective. Regions 1723 (S19W17) and 1724 (S26E08) are
in decline. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next
3 days. The solar wind speed declined gradually over the last
24 hours to ~280 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 4 22111121
Learmonth 4 22111121
Alice Springs 2 21000111
Culgoora 2 21010011
Gingin 3 21111110
Camden 1 11000010
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 3 21111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 22200010
Mawson 4 32100022
Davis 5 22211121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 5 Quiet
20 Apr 5 Quiet
21 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet for the last 24 hours.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal and MUFs were near monthly
predicted values over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 46800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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