[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 16 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 17 09:30:26 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region
1719 (N09W65) produced three C flares, the largest event being
a C3.5 at 16/2132 UT. Region 1723 (S18E08) produced two C1 flares.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days,
with a small chance of M-class flares. A northern-hemisphere
coronal hole is unlikely to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed
declined gradually over the UT day from ~400 km/s to ~350 km/s.
The IMF Bz component was mostly positive to +4 nT until around
1430 UT. Since then it has remained between -4 to -2 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21000212
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 5 22111222
Learmonth 5 21111222
Alice Springs 3 22000212
Culgoora 1 11000111
Gingin 3 21000222
Camden 2 11000211
Canberra 2 11000211
Hobart 3 11110211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 10000100
Casey 5 31110222
Mawson 23 30000247
Davis 4 221111--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1110 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 5 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours and are expected to remain quiet
for the next 3 days. Storm level conditions are currently being
experienced in Antarctica, most likely due to a prolonged mildly
negative IMF Bz.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Significant enhancements in Darwin 09-18 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal and MUFs near monthly
predicted values over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 23000 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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