[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 06 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 7 09:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 138/92 138/92 135/89
COMMENT: Seven, low level C flares from regions 11715 (N17W41),
11717 (S11E55), 11718 (N23E33) and 11719 (N08E65). Regions 11718
and 11719 grew in size. Two, weak CMEs were first observed in
LASCO and STEREO images at 0309 and 1209 UT, neither are expected
to be geo-effective. ACE data show the north-south IMF became
increasingly disturbed to +/-6 nT until ~06 UT, then settled.
Solar wind speed steadily increased until ~12 UT, peaking at
~~380 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 5 2212212-
Townsville 6 2222212-
Learmonth 6 3212112-
Norfolk Island 5 22211112
Culgoora 2 11110011
Gingin 5 2221112-
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 2 1111001-
Hobart 3 12211110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 0102000-
Casey 11 3432112-
Mawson 9 4221113-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0100 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 7 Quiet
08 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
09 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Some unsettled to active periods at high latitudes possible
over the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on
circuits with daylight sectors.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-05 and 18-23 UT. Enhanced
25-60% at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Enhanced 40%
22-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 15-25% with enhancements of 40-65% 10-18 UT at Darwin.
Near predicted monthly values with 20-25% enhancements 00-01,
08-10 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. Night spread F
at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced to 30% during local day. Near predicted monthly values
to 20% depressed during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Apr 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Apr 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on
circuits with daylight sectors.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 258 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 17600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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