[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 12 issued 2335 UT on 25 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 26 09:35:20 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several C-class flares
were observed today, the largest being a C4.5 event from region
1580 (N17E67). This flare peaked at 1753 UT. Solar wind speed
varied between 320 and 370 km/s during the UT day today and the
Bz component of IMF varied between +/- 4nT during most of this
period. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the
next 3 days with some possibility of isolated M-class activity.
Region 1564 (S11) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due
to return around 26 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 12211121
Learmonth 3 21111101
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 11001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 01001000
Casey 5 33210000
Mawson 3 22110012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 0001 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 4 Quiet
27 Sep 4 Quiet
28 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar level of activity may be expected for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions today. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days in this region as no significant
variation is expected in the ionospheric conditions during
this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 92 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Sep 92 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Sep 92 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF
enhancements were observed today. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 36900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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