[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 12 issued 2335 UT on 17 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 18 10:35:49 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low, with C-class flares from AR1589
and a new region rotating onto the eastern limb. There are 8
active regions on the disc, the most active being the new region.
Substantial EUV flux is being produced for ionising the ionosphere.
AR1591 (N08, E08) is the largest spot group. Expect mostly C-class
flares, with a <10% chance of M-class flares across the disc,
possibly from the new region, AR1591 or AR15989. The solar wind
speed rose quickly from 350km/s to ~500km/sec early in the UT
day as the high-speed solar wind stream from coronal hole CH541
took effect. Vsw dropped to ~400km/s late in the UT day, as CH541
has a dual structure, and subsequently returned to 500km/sec
by 23UT. As CH541 is longitudinally narrow it is not expected
Vsw will remain elevated for long on 18th Oct. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field remained stable, oscillating in +/-5nT range,
over the period, with no extended southward periods. A solar
sector boundary is due to rotate across Earth late in the UT
day on the 9th, possibly associated with coronal hole CH542.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22212112
Darwin 7 32212113
Townsville 7 32212222
Learmonth 6 32212112
Norfolk Island 3 21101112
Camden 5 21212112
Canberra 4 21202102
Hobart 4 22202102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 6 23302101
Mawson 7 ------22
Davis 11 33333212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1121 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Oct 5 Quiet
20 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet 17-Oct, with some isolated
Unsettled periods due to elevated solar wind speed from coronal
hole CH541. The high speed stream should rotate past Earth early
in the UT day 18th Oct. A solar sector boundary is expected to
rotate across Earth late on 19th Oct UT day with some geomagnetic
disturbances.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 100 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct 100 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct 100 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were enhanced above predicted monthly values due
to enhanced EUV flux from 8 spot groups now on the solar disc
with most likely to remain for the next 3 days. High MUF variability
at low latitudes over 17-Oct may have been due to geomagnetic
activity caused by a high speed solar wind speed stream from
a coronal hole, expected to pass early 18th Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 42100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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