[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 12 issued 2329 UT on 15 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 16 10:29:13 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low 15-Oct, with a series of C-class
flares from AR1591 (N07E30) and AR1593 (N17E75), the largest
of which was a long duration C4.4 from newly numbered region
AR1593 which recently rotated onto the visible disc. Region 1589,
previously a complex beta-gamma-delta region, has decayed in
size and complexity. Expect mostly C-class flares 16-Oct, with
a chance of M-class flares from AR1591 and AR1593. The solar
wind speed declined steadily over the UT day as the Earth passed
out of a coronal hole wind stream, and is currently near 400km/s.
The IMF remained stable over the period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 21232111
Darwin 5 21222112
Townsville 7 22232121
Learmonth 7 22232122
Norfolk Island 4 21221011
Camden 6 21232111
Canberra 5 20232011
Hobart 5 21232011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 22343000
Casey - --------
Mawson 17 53000145
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20 5344 4223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 5 Quiet
17 Oct 5 Quiet
18 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled 16-Oct,
with some isolated Active periods at high latitudes; the residual
effects of recent geomagnetic activity. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
for the next three days
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 14 October
and is current for 15-16 Oct. MUF depressions of up to 25% during
the local day were observed across the Australian region 15-Oct,
as the ionosphere continues to recover from a series of small
geomagnetic storms. Some minor MUF depressions are expected 16-Oct,
predominantly during local day time, however ionospheric support
is expected to steadily improve over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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