[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 12 issued 2357 UT on 30 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 1 09:57:21 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Low
Flares: none
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 136/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/78 130/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. Several low C-class
flares and one M1.3 flares were observed today. The M1.3 flare
peaked at 0433 UT and it was produced by region 1583(N12W88).
The previously predicted arrival of a CME happened around 1138
UT as a sudden impulse of 15nT was observed on the ground at
this time. The arrival of this CME increased the solar wind stream
from around 280 to 320 km/s and hence its effect has been weaker
than expected. Solar wind speed stayed at around 320 km/s during
the second half of the UT day. The Bz component of IMF stayed
close to the normal value before the arrival of the CME and then
turned south to around -8nT after the arrival of the CME and
stayed near this value for the remaining part of the UT day.
The effect of this CME may keep the solar wind slightly strengthened
on 1 October too. Low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated M-class
activity. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 30/1325UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 22133420
Darwin 9 2213331-
Townsville 11 2213342-
Learmonth 13 2224342-
Norfolk Island 9 1-03332-
Camden 11 2113342-
Canberra 9 11133420
Hobart 10 1113342-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 10 00013530
Casey 9 32232320
Mawson 16 3222245-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 009
Planetary 011
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 004
Planetary 004 0011 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Oct 7 Quiet
03 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 29 September
and is current for 30 Sep to 1 Oct. Geomagnetic activity increased
to Active levels today due to the previously anticipated impact
of a CME. The effect of the CME turned out to be weaker than
expected. Geomagnetic activity may stay at unsettled to active
levels on 01 October due to an expected continued effect of this
CME. Activity level is expected to decline to mostly quiet levels
on 2 and 3 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across Aus/NZ
regions today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 1
October. HF conditions may further improve on 2 and 3 October
with the possibility of mild to moderate MUF enhancements on
these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 115 Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 120 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Oct 125 5 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 29 September
and is current for 30 Sep to 1 Oct. Mostly normal HF conditions
with periods of MUF enhancements were observed today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected on 1 October. HF conditions
may further improve on 2 and 3 October when mild to moderate
enhancements in MUFs may be possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 14800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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