[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 12 issued 2345 UT on 28 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 29 10:45:24 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 2137UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: A number of C flares and an M2.2 flare at 2136UT originated
from region 1620(S12W57). Region 1623(N09E60)(near east limb),
also produced C-class flares during the period. Region 1620 has
grown somewhat and remains the most complex region on the visible
disc (beta-gamma-delta mag class). This region may produce further
M-class flares over the forecast period. LASCO and STEREO images
indicate a CME early in the UT day that is not expected to be
geo-effective. ACE data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed.
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field remained stable, oscillating
in +/-2nT range, over the period, with no extended southward
periods. The solar wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed
over the next 24 hours. Weak coronal hole and CME effects are
likely to impact late on 30 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 4 22110122
Alice Springs 3 21110012
Norfolk Island 1 11000011
Culgoora 1 11100011
Gnangara 3 21110121
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 1 10100001
Hobart 1 11100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 12000011
Casey 10 34321022
Mawson 10 32110044
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1110 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 5 Quiet
30 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Quiet for 29 Nov
with activity expected to increase to Unsettled and possible
Active late on 30 Nov and into 01 Dec with the anticipated arrival
of 27/Nov CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects. Storm
levels possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
30 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov 75 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Dec 75 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values during the
last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the next 24
hours. Mild depressions may be observed during 30 Nov-01 Dec
in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. Chance
of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 50800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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