[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 12 issued 2348 UT on 26 Nov 2012

Tue Nov 27 10:48:25 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 122/75

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Region 1620(S13W28) produced a number of low level C-class 
events, the largest was a C2 event at 1526UT. This region has 
grown rapidly and is classified Esi with a beta-gamma magnetic 
configuration. M-class activity is likely from this region over 
the the next few days. Region 1618 is decaying as it nears the 
west limb and produced a C1.0 flare at 0213UT. The background 
X-ray flux is high close to the C levels. LASCO and STEREO images 
show a slow CME which may be associated with a filament eruption 
observed south of region 1620 in SDO images at ~0340UT. This 
CME may be weakly geo-effective. ACE parameters appear to indicate 
the arrival of the forecast CME associated with the filament 
eruption on 23 Nov. The solar wind was undisturbed until 0435UT 
when a weak shock was observed. This raised the density and speed 
to 550 km/s with the north-south IMF component decreasing to 
~~-8nT, then mostly northward to 5 nT. The solar wind is expected 
to decrease over the forecast period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23221212
      Darwin               7   23222212
      Townsville           7   23222221
      Learmonth            7   23222212
      Alice Springs        7   23221212
      Norfolk Island       5   23210112
      Culgoora             5   23211111
      Gnangara             6   22221212
      Camden               6   23221112
      Canberra             5   23211111
      Hobart               7   23321112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     3   22210011
      Casey               29   45651223
      Mawson              10   32331232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0110 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov     7    Quiet
28 Nov     5    Quiet
29 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: A weak sudden impulse of approximately 14 nT was observed 
in the IPS magnetometer data at approximately 0514UT in response 
to a weak shock in the solar wind. Geomagnetic activity was mostly 
Quiet for the Australian region during 26 November, with an isolated 
Unsettled period around 0500UT. Storm periods were observed at 
high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity should return to mostly 
Quiet levels for the next few days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Nov    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values during the 
last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the next three 
days,27-29 November. Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast 
period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    73500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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