[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 12 issued 2330 UT on 24 Nov 2012

Sun Nov 25 10:30:14 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 118/70

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Region 1618 (N08 W40) retains its magnetic complexity 
but appears to be declining. Other regions appear to be stable 
or declining. New region 1621 (N15E76) is a simple alpha spot. 
A CME was first observed in STEREO images at 2354 UT but is a 
far side event. ACE parameters appear to indicate the arrival 
of only one of the forecast CMEs so far. Wind speed ranged between 
360 and 440 km/s with the north-south IMF mostly southward, to 
-11 nT, from the weak impulse at 23/2113 UT to ~11 UT, then mostly 
northward to 13 nT. The solar wind may become disturbed on 25 
Nov if the other CME arrives. The CME associated with the filament 
eruption on 23 Nov is likely to impact late on 26 Nov or early 
27 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to active

Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   33323322
      Darwin              14   33324323
      Townsville          15   33334323
      Learmonth           15   33334323
      Alice Springs       14   33334312
      Norfolk Island      11   33323222
      Culgoora            11   33323222
      Gnangara            13   42323323
      Camden              12   33333222
      Canberra            11   33323222
      Hobart              11   33323222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    20   34633111
      Casey               22   55433322
      Mawson              34   66434333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   0101 1114     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov    15    Unsettled to active
26 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled
27 Nov    15    Unsettled to active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 22 November 
and is current for 23-25 Nov. Possible minor storm periods 25 
and 27 Nov due to CME events.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Nov   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements
      to 20% 03-04, 10-13 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to
      20% 07-15 UT and to 25% 17-20 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during with enhancements
      to 30% mostly 04-20 UT. Perth and Learmonth mostly
      near predicted monthly values; depressions to 20%,
      00-01 and 14-16 UT to 20% at Learmonth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Some depressions to
      20% 08-20 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov    90    Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 22 November 
and is current for 24-25 Nov.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    34100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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