[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 12 issued 2322 UT on 16 Nov 2012

Sat Nov 17 10:22:53 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 138/92

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   141/95             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest 
flare was a C8 class X-ray flare which occurred at 16/1539UT 
on the east limb and was associated with type II/IV sweeps. The 
Type II was observed and calculated by Sagamore Hill at approximately 
500km/s. A long duration C1.4 class X-ray flare was produced 
by active region 1613 peaking at 16/0751UT and was associated 
with an erupting filament to the east of the region. Neither 
flares are expected to be geoeffective. Expect Low activity over 
the UT day, 17 November with a slight chance of an M-class flare. 
ACE spacecraft observed a solar wind speed ranging from 450 to 
390km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF ranged 
between +/-3nT during this period. Expect the solar wind to remain 
between 450 to 350km/s over the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22112122
      Darwin               5   21102123
      Townsville           7   22112232
      Learmonth            6   22122222
      Alice Springs        5   21112122
      Norfolk Island       4   22102121
      Culgoora             4   12102122
      Gnangara             5   22112221
      Camden               6   22212122
      Canberra             3   11102012
      Hobart               6   22212122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   12102010
      Mawson              28   44322653
      Davis               19   33433352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1101 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov     5    Quiet
18 Nov     5    Quiet
19 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels over the 
Australian region during the last 24 hours with Quiet to Active 
levels in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to remain Quiet for the next three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Nov   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values or enhanced 
during the last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the 
next three days, 17-19 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    89600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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