[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 12 issued 2338 UT on 10 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 11 10:38:42 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
several C-class flares. The largest of these was a C2 event at
10/0504 from active region 1608 (S21W03). An associated CME observed
in STEREO-A imagery at 10/0539 requires further analysis. Active
region 1610 (S23E19) increased in spot count. The CME observed
09/1454 is expected to arrive at Earth on 12-Nov. Solar activity
is likely to remain low for the next 3 days, with a chance of
M-class flares. The solar wind speed declined slightly and is
now ~300km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral until ~15UT.
Since then it has fluctuated from -4nT to +2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11011112
Darwin 5 22112122
Townsville 4 11111122
Learmonth 4 11112122
Alice Springs 2 10011112
Norfolk Island 1 1000101-
Culgoora 1 10001010
Gnangara 4 11112122
Canberra 2 10001012
Hobart 1 00001012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Mawson 13 00012136
Davis 9 22233123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0011 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 5 Quiet
12 Nov 40 Minor Storm
13 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours
and are expected to remain so on 11-Nov. Due to the expected
arrival on a CME on 12-Nov (most likely in the first half of
the UT day), minor storm level activity is predicted for 12-13
Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
12 Nov Fair Fair-poor Poor
13 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are likely to be adversely
affected on 12-13 Nov by expected CME arrival.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
13 Nov 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remained at near predicted monthly values with
quiet geomagnetic conditions over the few days last and increased
EUV flux. MUF depressions are likely from late 12-Nov due to
expected CME arrival.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 20400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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