[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 12 issued 2348 UT on 31 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 1 10:48:10 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed during
31 October. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1439UT
on 31 Oct. Solar wind speeds have been between 350-400 km/s and
the IMF has been predominantly northward following the shock.
Solar activity is expected to remain mostly Very Low to Low for
the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 10102322
Darwin 7 10002423
Townsville 10 22212423
Learmonth 8 30012422
Norfolk Island 5 1-002322
Culgoora 5 10102322
Canberra 4 00002312
Hobart 5 10202312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00100---
Mawson 4 21211---
Davis 9 22322322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 16 Active
02 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 31 October
and is current for 31 Oct to 1 Nov. A weak sudden impulse of
approximately 20 nT was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at approximately 1540 UT in response to a weak shock in the solar
wind. Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Unsettled to Active
for 1 November with Minor Storm levels still possible should
the IMF turn southward. Activity should return to mostly Unsettled
levels by 2 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Conditions should remain mostly normal for 1 November.
Mildly degraded conditions may occur at times during 2-3 November
in response to possible elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 80 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
02 Nov 75 Mostly near predicted monthly values with mild
depressions possible at times.
03 Nov 75 Mostly near predicted monthly values with mild
depressions possible at times.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 31 October
and is current for 1-2 Nov. MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values during 31 October. MUFs should remain mostly near predicted
monthly values for 1 November. Mild depressions may be observed
during 2-3 November in response to possible elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 276 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 14100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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