[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 12 issued 2352 UT on 30 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 31 09:52:16 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: A C1-flare was observed from around the east limb during
30 May. Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1476 is due for
return to the north-east limb around 31 May. Solar activity may
increase over the next few days. Solar wind speeds are still
slightly elevated and are presently around 400-450 km/s. No possible
geoeffective CMEs were observed during 30 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22122110
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 7 22322221
Learmonth 5 22221211
Norfolk Island 3 2-022110
Camden 4 22122110
Canberra 4 21122110
Hobart 4 21122110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 5 10043000
Casey 8 33322110
Mawson 9 33312221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1201 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 5 Quiet
01 Jun 4 Quiet
02 Jun 3 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were Fair to Normal during 30 May. Mildly
degraded conditions are expected again at times for 31 May primarily
for equatorial-low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with isolated
depressions of 10-20% at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were Fair to Normal for northern regions
during 30 May with mostly Normal conditions observed for central
and southern regions. Mildly degraded conditions are expected
again at times for 31 May primarily for northern regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 92700 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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