[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 12 issued 2353 UT on 24 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 25 09:53:18 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: *YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Several low level C-class flares were observed during
24 May. Further C-class flare activity is possible for the next
few days. Solar wind speeds continued to decline during 24 May
and are presently approximately 500 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 5 12222211
Darwin 6 22222211
Townsville 5 2221221-
Learmonth 6 22222211
Norfolk Island 5 12221112
Camden 6 12232211
Canberra 3 11121200
Hobart 6 12232211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island 9 123330--
Casey 8 3221231-
Mawson 15 4432232-
Davis 7 2-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 19 4543 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 6 Quiet
26 May 8 Mostly Quiet with the slight chance of Unsettled
to Active periods.
27 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Quiet for the
next few days with the slight chance of Unsettled to Active periods
during 26 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected at times for the
next few days, otherwise conditions should be mostly normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 May 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 May 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during 24 May with
mildly degraded conditions observed at times at most locations.
Mildly degraded conditions are expected again at times for the
next few days, otherwise conditions should be mostly normal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 615 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 168000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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