[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 12 issued 2324 UT on 22 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 23 09:24:45 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day with no
significant flares. A filament eruption in the SW quadrant produced
a narrow, slow, and relatively weak CME. STEREO imagery indicates
the CME is concentrated well south of the ecliptic. This CME
is expected to produce only minor, if any, disturbance at Earth
in 3-4 days time. The current spot groups are not particularly
active, and solar activity is expected to be at Very Low levels
over the next 3 days. Following the solar wind shock late on
the 21 May, the post shock flow contained moderate fluctuations
of the IMF about the ecliptic (+/-10nT) and the solar wind speed
was moderate (400-420 km/s). Solar wind speed is expected to
increase today (23-May) as a coronal hole moves into geoeffective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Unsettled, with isolated Active
periods
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 14 24222343
Darwin 17 35222343
Townsville 19 35233343
Learmonth 19 35233343
Norfolk Island 11 24232232
Camden 14 24222343
Canberra 10 24122232
Hobart 14 24223342
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
Macquarie Island 26 13355542
Casey 13 34222242
Mawson 35 25333374
Davis 22 25343352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1000 1242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 15 Unsettled, with isolated Active periods
24 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Unsettled over the
UT day, with isolated Active periods 0300-0600UT and 1800-2100UT.
The activity was due to some moderate IMF fluctuations in the
post-interplanetary shock flow of the solar wind. The arrival
of a high speed coronal hole wind stream is expected to produce
mostly Unsettled geomagnetic conditions day 1 (23 May), with
isolated Active periods, particularly at high latitudes. A return
to mostly Quiet conditions is expected by day 2 (24-May).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal over the UT day, with MUFs
mostly near predicted monthly values during the day, and up to
15% depressed over night in N Aus and near equatorial locations.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three days, although some minor MUF depressions
are likely in S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions days 2 and 3 (24-25
May). Minor degradation of HF conditions may also be experienced
in these regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 54800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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