[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 12 issued 2342 UT on 15 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 16 09:42:25 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 122/75
COMMENT: Region 1476 (N10W56)produced few low level C-class flares.
This region has decayed in size and complexity. There continues
to be the chance of an isolated M-class flare over the forecast
period. New region 1485(S19E65) was numbered today. A CME was
observed in STEREO images at 1324UT, further images are required
to determine its path. Solar wind speed decreased from 450 to
~350 Km/s while the IMF Bz was mostly neutral until 07UT then
mostly northward. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at low
levels for the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 3 22210001
Darwin 4 22211002
Townsville 5 22211112
Learmonth 6 32221102
Norfolk Island 3 22210011
Camden 2 22110001
Canberra 2 12100001
Hobart 2 22110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 1 11100000
Casey 7 33311101
Mawson 7 33321001
Davis 10 34322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 3210 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 5 Quiet
17 May 5 Quiet
18 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: A very weak signature of the anticipated glancing blow
from May 12 CME in ACE data. The embedded Bz component of the
CME shock has been north biased, limiting geomagnetic disturbance.
Geomagnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain mostly
Quiet for the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Blanketing sporadic E was observed for much of the local
night at Hobart. Brief periods of night time depressions observed
at all latitudes. Otherwise propagation conditions mostly near
predicted monthly values. Overnight depressions possible at times
at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 51800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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