[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 12 issued 2330 UT on 11 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 12 09:30:20 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with only C-class flares observed
over the UT day. The largest was a C6.1 level flare at 17:31UT.
Most flare activity originated in AR 1476 (N12W03) which maintains
its size and magnetic complexity. It maintains potential for
M- to X-class activity. Solar wind speed declined from 650 to
550 km/s over the UT day. There was a sustained period of southward
IMF Bz from 10/2100 to 11/0200UT. Otherwise Bz was mostly neutral
with minor fluctuations to +/-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 8 33221221
Darwin 6 22211222
Townsville 10 33222322
Learmonth 10 33222322
Norfolk Island 7 -3221221
Camden 8 33221221
Canberra 6 22221221
Hobart 8 33222221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
Macquarie Island 9 33321221
Casey 22 43312462
Mawson 33 65422544
Davis 36 54422663
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3322 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with
isolated Unsettled periods at some stations 00-03UT. Conditions
at high latitudes were Unsettled to Active with isolated Minor
Storm intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions at low and mid
latitudes with isolated Unsettled intervals possible days one
and two. Isolated Active intervals possible at high latitudes.
Conditions should decline to generally Quiet by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed 30-50% 07-13UT.
Depressed 20% 14-16UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Darwin spread-F observed local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Hobart, Christchurch no data.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Extended periods of weak ionospheric support.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions possible Equatorial/N
Aus regions mainly local night. Disturbed periods likely Antarctic
region next one to two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 611 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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