[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 12 issued 2337 UT on 08 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 9 09:37:03 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1308UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Minor C-class flare activity observed throughout the
UT day. Active region 1476 (N09E34) produced an impulsive M1
level flare at 1308UT with associated radio burst activity. A
slow, weak CME was observed in STEREO A and B COR2 imagery after
1030UT. This event appears Earth-directed but is unlikely to
cause significant disturbance. Solar wind speed increased over
the UT day from 300 to 400 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF
was mostly neutral until 17UT after which it trended strongly
Southward, reaching -10nT at 22UT before trending North again
late in the UT day. The phi component of the IMF indicated a
solar sector boundary crossing between 04-21UT, with fluctuations
possibly due to onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22111113
Darwin 6 22111223
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 8 22222223
Norfolk Island 5 22111113
Camden 5 12111113
Canberra 2 11000012
Hobart 5 12111113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 2 01011002
Casey 6 12212113
Mawson 18 03323226
Davis 11 13322224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0101 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 16 Active
10 May 16 Active
11 May 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 May and is
current for 9-10 May. The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet
becoming Unsettled 21-24UT due to a negative trending IMF Bz
component and increasing solar wind speed. Solar wind parameters
indicate onset of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream.
Expect Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions next three days
with the chance of Active intervals. Minor Storm periods possible
at high latitudes. There may be additional disturbance day one
or two due to an anticipated solar wind shock from the CME observed
May 07.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Norfolk Island depressed 20% at times.
Sydney, Canberra depressed 20% 03-10UT.
Perth depressed 20% 05-07 and 10-17UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions possible Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Disturbed periods possible Antarctic region next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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