[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 12 issued 2329 UT on 05 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 6 09:29:12 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1323UT possible lower European
M1.3 2302UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Numerous C flares and an M1.4 from newly numbered region
1476 (N09E67) at 1323 UT and an M1.3 at 2301 UT. Region 1476
has M-flare potential at this time. CMEs were observed in STEREO
and SDO images at approx. 0309, 0539 and 1924 UT. The 0539 UT
CME appears to have been associated with region 1470 (S15W32).
A disappearing filament in the north east quadrant was associated
with the 1924 UT CME. It is expected there will be effects from
these CMEs. ACE data show solar wind parameters were mostly
undisturbed over the reporting period. Solar wind parameters may
be mildly disturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 2 11112001
Townsville 5 12212112
Learmonth 3 11121101
Norfolk_Island 1 11011010
Camden 0 00011000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 01011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie_Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 222110--
Mawson 3 20111021
Davis 5 12221211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2200 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 6 Quiet to unsettled
07 May 7 Quiet to unsettled
08 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
08 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
04-12 UT, depressions to 30% 14-17, 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
00-05, 21-23 UT, depressions to 35% 08-15 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
10-16 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%. Depressions to 35% 10-18 UT at
Hobart, Learmonth and Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
12-20 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes.
Short-wave fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 34900 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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