[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 12 issued 2338 UT on 30 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 31 10:38:43 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low during 30 March with a C1/SF
flare at 2112UT appearing to have occurred in the vicinity of
returning region 1429 (NE limb). Solar activity is expected to
be Low-Moderate over the next few days. A weak CME observed in
STEREO satellite imagery around 19UT on 28 March is primarily
directed southward down out of the ecliptic plane, however, there
is the small chance of a glancing impact from this event on day
2 of the forecast period although effects are only expected to
be slight. CMEs observed in SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery
during 30 March appear predominantly directed to the N/NE and
are not expected to be geoeffective. ACE satellite solar wind
parameters (EPAM and SWEPAM) suggest the possible arrival of
a very weak CME around 08UT on 30 March. This is possibly a glancing
impact from a partial halo CME observed on 27 March. Solar wind
speeds increased slightly from 08UT and are presently around
420 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to be predominantly
low for the next few days with the small chance that they may
again become slightly elevated with the possible glancing CME
impact on day 2 of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 22211001
Darwin 4 22211101
Townsville 4 22211012
Learmonth 4 22211101
Norfolk Island 2 12210001
Camden 3 22211001
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 3 22111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 12100000
Casey 9 33420111
Mawson 8 43321001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0000 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 6 Quiet
01 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at Quiet levels for the
Australian region during 30 March, with some Unsettled and Active
levels observed at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days. There is the
small chance of isolated Unsettled to Active levels with possible
glancing CME impact on day 2 of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next few days. SWFs are possible over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 30 March
and is current for 30-31 Mar (SWFs). HF conditions in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during 30 March.
MUFs are expected to remain mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three days. SWFs are possible over the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 44600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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