[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 12 issued 2357 UT on 18 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 19 10:57:17 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: A C1 flare was observed from region 1434(S20W40) at
0237UT otherwise solar activity was at Very Low levels during
18 March. Region 1434 appears stable and region 1432 has decayed
while region 1435 has shown growth in area and complexity and
is considered likely to flare. Solar activity is expected to
stay at Low levels with a slight chance of an isolated M-class
flare over the forecast period. LASCO C2 images show a halo CME
in the Northwest limb at 0024UT. STEREO images indicate it is
a far side event and is not expected to be geo-effective. The
solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 650Km/s and
is now around 550Km/s. The IMF Bz ranged between +2/-4nT staying
southwards for relatively longer periods between 00-11UT. Solar
wind speed parameters are expected to further decline to become
undisturbed day 1.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 32231212
Darwin 6 32221112
Townsville 7 32231211
Learmonth 9 32232222
Norfolk Island 7 22231212
Camden 7 32131212
Canberra 6 32131111
Hobart 11 33242222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 23352211
Casey 16 44432223
Mawson 55 76444555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22 4443 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 12 Unsettled
20 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled
for the first half of the UT day for the Australian region, becoming
Quiet over the second half of the UT day. There was moderate
sustained southward IMF Bz observed across the first half of
the UT day is most likely the cause. Minor and Major Storm periods
in Antarctica were observed today. A weak shock from the Mar
15 flare wich has not yet eventuated, may occur early day one
of the forecast period. Activity may increase day 1 if a Southward
Bz component remains in the solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 65 About 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Night time depressed MUF periods observed in Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Generally weak ionospheric support Antarctic region.
Sporadic E and Spread F conditions were observed at times during
18 March wich may have degraded HF conditions. Conditions are
improving and MUFs should be depressed by at most 20% for the
next day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 657 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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