[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 12 issued 2351 UT on 17 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 18 10:51:55 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 2039UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: One impulsive M1 flare observed at 2039UT from region
1434(S22W27). This region appears stable, region 1435 (S26W37)grew
rapidly overnight while region 1432(N14W39) has decayed. Solar
activity is expected to stay mostly at Low levels with the possibility
of an isolated M-class flare over the forecast period. the solar
wind speed remained elevated, fluctuating between 620-700Km/s
over the UT day. The IMF Bz ranged between +4/-6nT with notable
southward periods. Further disturbance to the solar wind parameters
is likely over the next 2 days due to CME effects. Solar wind
parameters should begin to settle over day 3.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Mostly Unsettled with isolated
Active periods.
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 14 33332333
Darwin 14 33332333
Townsville 14 33332333
Learmonth 16 33343333
Norfolk Island 10 32322322
Camden 15 33432333
Canberra 12 23332323
Hobart 16 33433333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
Macquarie Island 31 34564433
Casey 22 44443334
Mawson 62 64453676
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 74 (Active)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Hobart 77 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21 4343 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 20 Active
19 Mar 20 Active
20 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 17 March and
is current for 17-18 Mar. As anticipated, predominantly Unsettled
with Active periods conditions for the Australian region with
Minor and Major Storm periods in Antarctica were observed today.
Conditions are expected to be more active for days 1 and 2 due
to the anticipated CME effects with activity declining thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal-fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal-fair Fair Poor
19 Mar Normal-fair Fair Poor
20 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric disturbance likely next two days
due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 50 About 30% below predicted monthly values
19 Mar 50 About 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 17 March
and is current for 18 Mar only. Ongoing disturbances S Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions. Variable depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Spread F was observed at times in S Aus / NZ region. Expect degraded
ionospheric conditions next three days due to further anticipated
geomagnetic disturbances. S Aus / NZ / Antarctic regions most
likely to be affected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 658 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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