[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 12 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 26 09:30:52 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with a
single C1 flare from region 1512 (S16E39). This region emerged
over the last 24 hours and continues to grow. No active regions
with significant flare potential are currently on the visible
Sun. A small CME was observed late in the UT day directed to
the south eastern limb. It is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar wind conditions are ambient. Low flare activity and ambient
solar wind conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 11223231
Darwin 7 21213231
Townsville 11 32323232
Learmonth 8 22223231
Norfolk Island 4 11212121
Camden 5 11223120
Canberra 4 11212120
Hobart 4 01222---
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
Macquarie Island 7 00324210
Casey 8 22322231
Mawson 14 43333231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 57 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2111 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 5 Quiet
27 Jun 5 Quiet
28 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet over the
past 24 hours with isolated Unsettled periods. Conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good however the maximum
useable frequencies are depressed due to low levels of ionising
EUV flux and are expected to remain depressed for the next 3
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 50 Depressed by up to 30%
27 Jun 50 Depressed by up to 30%
28 Jun 50 Depressed by up to 30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 24 June
and is current for 25-26 Jun. IPS HF Communications Warning 23
was issued on 24 June and is current for 25-26 Jun. MUF depressions
were observed over most of the Australian region during the last
24 hours. MUFs are expected to be depressed by up to 30% in the
Australian region over the next 2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 26500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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