[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 23 Jun 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 24 09:29:07 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Very Low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low. A long-duration 
C2 flare peaked at 23/0750, with a CME erupting from the northwest 
limb shortly beforehand. LASCO and STEREO imagery suggests that 
the CME is not likely to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low for the next 3 days. The solar wind varied 
between 400-450km/s and the IMF Bz component varied between +/-4nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110110
      Darwin               2   10210210
      Townsville           5   11221221
      Learmonth            7   2222----
      Norfolk Island       1   01110110
      Camden               1   00110100
      Canberra             1   00110100
      Hobart               1   00120100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     2   00130000
      Casey                5   22321110
      Mawson               5   21211122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1111 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun     5    Quiet
25 Jun     5    Quiet
26 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours 
and are expected to remain so for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jun    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun    55    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
25 Jun    55    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
26 Jun    55    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most of the Australian 
region during the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to be depressed 
by up to 20% in the Australian region over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   115000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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