[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 12 issued 2353 UT on 09 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 10 09:53:10 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1132UT possible lower European
M1.8 1653UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Two impulsive M1-flares were observed from region 1499
during 9 June. There is the small chance of further isolated
low level M-class flares during 10 June. Solar wind speeds continued
to decline during 9 June and are presently between 400-450 km/s.
Solar wind speeds may become mildly elevated over the next few
days with the possibility of anticipated glancing CME impacts
and a coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22121121
Darwin 4 22021121
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22022122
Norfolk Island 3 12011120
Camden 5 22121121
Canberra 3 11111111
Hobart 3 12021110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 01021100
Casey 5 22121212
Mawson 10 33122124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1234 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 10 Mostly Quiet with isolated Unsettled to Active
levels possible
11 Jun 10 Mostly Quiet with isolated Unsettled to Active
levels possible
12 Jun 10 Mostly Quiet with isolated Unsettled to Active
levels possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may become slightly elevated at times
over the next few days with the possibility of anticipated glancing
CME impacts and a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Isolated mild depressions may be observed at times over
the next few days, otherwise conditions should be mostly normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Isolated mild depressions may be observed at times over
the next few days, otherwise conditions should be mostly normal.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 569 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 68200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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