[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 30 Jun 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 1 09:29:04 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1252UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar flare activity remained Moderate with two M1 flares 
from region 1513(N17E30). Regions 1514(S16E30) and 1515(S17E43) 
also produced C-class flares. Further M flare activity is possible 
over the next 3 days. The arrival of a co-rotating interaction 
region ahead of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream was 
observed in the ACE satellite data in the early hours of 30 June. 
The wind speed steadily increased to 700 km/s. The IMF Bz component 
fluctuated between +/- 10nT initially, reducing to +/- 5nT after 
around 1500UT. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected for the 
next 2-3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      17   22354332
      Darwin              15   23343333
      Townsville          17   23444332
      Learmonth           21   23355332
      Norfolk Island      12   22343322
      Camden              20   22354433
      Canberra            16   22353332
      Hobart              22   22364333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    41   13575533
      Casey               31   33344564
      Mawson              38   44644455

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1110 1213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul    20    Active
02 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
03 Jul    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Unsettled with 
an Active to Minor Storm period between 0900-1200UT. The activity 
is due to a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a coronal 
hole high speed stream in the solar wind. Conditions are expected 
to be Unsettled with Active periods over the next two days before 
reducing to Unsettled on June 3.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jun    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs returned to near predicted monthly values with 
some depressed periods of up to 15%. MUFs are expected to be 
near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days with a degree 
of variability. Mildly depressed periods are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    86100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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