[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 30 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 1 09:29:04 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1252UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar flare activity remained Moderate with two M1 flares
from region 1513(N17E30). Regions 1514(S16E30) and 1515(S17E43)
also produced C-class flares. Further M flare activity is possible
over the next 3 days. The arrival of a co-rotating interaction
region ahead of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream was
observed in the ACE satellite data in the early hours of 30 June.
The wind speed steadily increased to 700 km/s. The IMF Bz component
fluctuated between +/- 10nT initially, reducing to +/- 5nT after
around 1500UT. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected for the
next 2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 17 22354332
Darwin 15 23343333
Townsville 17 23444332
Learmonth 21 23355332
Norfolk Island 12 22343322
Camden 20 22354433
Canberra 16 22353332
Hobart 22 22364333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 41 13575533
Casey 31 33344564
Mawson 38 44644455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1110 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 20 Active
02 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Unsettled with
an Active to Minor Storm period between 0900-1200UT. The activity
is due to a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a coronal
hole high speed stream in the solar wind. Conditions are expected
to be Unsettled with Active periods over the next two days before
reducing to Unsettled on June 3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs returned to near predicted monthly values with
some depressed periods of up to 15%. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days with a degree
of variability. Mildly depressed periods are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 86100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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