[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 12 issued 2352 UT on 21 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 22 10:52:38 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours. Two
low C-class flares were observed. One weak shock (0359UT) and
weak sudden impulse (0503UT) were observed today. Solar wind
speed showed a sudden incrase from 300 to 340 km/s due to the
shock. Solar wind speed stayed mostly between 310 and 330 km/s
during most parts of the UT day. to 300 km/s and the Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-6nT during this period. Low levels of
solar activity may be expected for the next 3 days. Isolated
M-class activity may be observed during this period.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0359UT
on 21 Jan. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 21/2020UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Previously M-flare(s)
producing region 1389 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 23 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 23222223
Darwin 9 22223223
Townsville 9 23222223
Learmonth 10 23223223
Norfolk_Island 8 13222123
Camden 9 23232222
Canberra 8 23222222
Hobart 8 23232122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Macquarie_Island 7 01243012
Casey 13 34322233
Mawson 20 44322254
Davis 16 23433234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1121 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled
during the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled levels of activity
with the possibility of Active periods may be expected for the
next two days. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels of activity may
be expected for the third day.
A weak (10nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0503UT on 21 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most locations
during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for 24 January with the possibility of minor to mild degradations
on mid and high latitudes on 22 and 23 January due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 80 about 15% below predicted monthly values
23 Jan 80 about 15% below predicted monthly values
24 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most locations
during the last 24 hours. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
may be possible on 22 and 23 January due to expected enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. Mostly normal
conditions may be expected for 24 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 39200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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