[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 12 issued 2344 UT on 19 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 20 10:44:40 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.2 1612UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate today. Region 1402(N29E15)
produced a long duration M3.2 flare that started at 1344UT,
peaked at 1605UT and ended at 1750UT. A CME has been reported
associated to this flare but due to unavailability of SOHO C2
data around this time, the CME can not be confirmed at this stage.
Two C-class flares were also observed today. Solar wind speed
mostly stayed between 350 and 370 km/s over the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4nT during most parts
of the UT day today. Low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next 3 days. Isolated M-class activity may be observed
during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Darwin 6 22221212
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 6 21121312
Norfolk Island 3 11110221
Camden 3 11110211
Canberra 2 11110201
Hobart 5 12111311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 01000101
Casey 17 34532223
Mawson 10 33231223
Davis 11 23332322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet during the
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled levels of activity may be
expected on 20 January with some possibility of activity
levels rising to Active levels at times on 21 and 22 January
due to the reported CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
21 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for 20 January with the possibility of minor
to mild degradations on mid and high latitudes on 21 and/or
22 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 80 About 10% below predicted monthly values
22 Jan 80 About 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected on 20 January with some possibility of minor
to mild degradations on mid and high latitudes on 21 and/or
22 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 47500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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