[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 12 issued 2351 UT on 01 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 2 10:51:13 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Background X-ray flux remained mostly at very low levels
over the previous day with a single C-class event from region
1389(S22E17) at 0734UT. This region, the most active on the disc
over the last few days, decayed somewhat in area and complexity
over the past 24 hours. All regions currently on disc are stable.
Solar activity is expected to stay mostly at Low levels for the
next 3 days. Possibility of an isolated M-class flare from region
1389 over the forecast period. Solar wind parameters were undisturbed
over the reporting period. Some minor effects from a southern
polar coronal hole may slightly disturb these parameters over
the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22222212
Norfolk Island 2 11110101
Camden 4 21211111
Canberra 3 21111111
Hobart 5 22222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11002101
Casey 15 45322222
Mawson 12 33222333
Davis 18 33333352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1112 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 5 Quiet
03 Jan 5 Quiet
04 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours
for the Australian region. Conditions are expected to be mostly
Quiet over the next 3 days with a chance of Unsettled periods
due to some minor effects from a southern polar coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 74
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 120 About 20% above predicted monthly values
03 Jan 120 About 20% above predicted monthly values
04 Jan 120 About 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slight depressions were observed at times during the
past 24 hours. Periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions
were observed at times, otherwise propagation conditions mostly
near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values. There is a small chance of SWFs
over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 27100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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