[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 12 issued 2338 UT on 24 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 25 10:38:31 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. A CME was observed
in LASCO C2 imagery at 0346 UT. This CME came from a filament
eruption that was centred around N32E38. There is a small
possibility for a minor glancing blow from this CME on 27 February.
Solar wind speed varied between 400 and 460 km/s during the UT day
today as the coronal hole effect further weakend. The Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-5 nT for most parts of the UT day. Very
low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22122212
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 7 23122222
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk_Island 4 12011212
Camden 5 22122211
Canberra 4 22012201
Hobart 5 22122211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
Macquarie_Island 3 11022210
Casey 13 44332211
Mawson 9 34222210
Davis 10 33332221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1011 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 5 Quiet
26 Feb 5 Quiet
27 Feb 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
today. Nearly similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days with some possibility of unsettled conditions
on 27 February due to a possible glancing blow from a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days with a small possibility of minor
degradations on high latitudes on 27 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today on
most locations today with isolated periods of minor depressions
at low latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days with a small possibility of minor
degradations on high latitudes on 27 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 84600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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