[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 12 issued 2344 UT on 21 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 22 10:44:22 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Region 1422(N15W24)
produced the only C-class flare for the day, a C1 at 1148 UT.
Solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from 500 km/s to
nearly 370 km/s during the UT day today and Bz component of
IMF mostly varied between +/-4 nT during this period. Solar
activity is expected to stay at Low levels for the next 3 days.
A high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole may strengthen
the solar wind stream from late on 23 February or early on
24 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22221212
Darwin 6 32121212
Townsville 6 22221221
Learmonth 6 32111212
Norfolk Island 5 22221112
Camden - --------
Canberra 4 22211111
Hobart 5 22221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 22221000
Casey 17 45432211
Mawson 22 54432125
Davis 19 54442221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 3443 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 5 Quiet
23 Feb 5 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb 10 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
levels today with isolated Active periods at high latitudes.
Mostly Quiet activity may be expected on 22 and 23 February with
some possibility of rise in activity to Unsettled levels late
on 23 February. Mostly Unsettled with some possibility of Active
periods may be expected on 24 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
23 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal-fair Fair Poor
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depression in MUFs were observed on
many locations today. HF conditions were relatively better at low
latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for most
locations on 21 February. Minor to mild degradations are possible
on mid and high latitudes late on 23 February. Minor to moderate
degradations in HF conditions may be expected on 24 February
due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels around
this time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
24 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs depressions up to nearly 30% were observed on many
locations today. HF conditions were relatively better on low
latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 22
and most parts of 23 February. Minor to mild degradations are
possible on mid and high latitudes late on 23 February. Minor
to moderate degradations in HF conditions may be expected on
24 February due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity
levels around this time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list