[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 12 issued 2329 UT on 17 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 18 10:29:28 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the past day.
Solar wind conditions are ambient. Solar activity is expected
to remain and low levels for the next 3 days. A coronal hole
high speed wind stream is expected to arrive sometime on the
18th of Feb UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 5 22221121
Learmonth 2 12111001
Norfolk Island 3 21110012
Camden 1 10110101
Canberra 1 00110001
Hobart 2 11210001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00220000
Casey 6 23321001
Mawson 2 12210000
Davis 8 23322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2001 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across Australia were Quiet over
the last day with some Unsettled periods in Antarctica. Conditions
are expected to be Unsettled with isolated Active periods for
the 18th and 19th due to a coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream. Conditions should relax to Quiet levels by the 20th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 60 About 15% below predicted monthly values
20 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values with
some mildly depressed periods near the start of the UT day. MUFs
are expected to be around predicted monthly values for the 18th.
Some depressed periods are possible on the 19th then conditions
should return to predicted monthly values on the 20th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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