[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 12 issued 2226 UT on 30 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 31 09:26:50 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Expect
Very Low solar activity 31-Dec December, with the chance of an
isolated C-class flare. The solar wind increased steadily over
the UT day to be near 480km/s at time of reporting, with moderate
(+/-5nT) fluctuations in IMF Bz. The variations were due to a
weak coronal hole wind stream, which is expected to decline over
the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11222221
Cocos Island 5 11222220
Darwin 8 13322222
Townsville 6 12222221
Learmonth 7 21222321
Norfolk Island 5 21122220
Culgoora 6 21222221
Gnangara 6 21222221
Camden 6 21222221
Canberra 3 00212210
Hobart 5 11222221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 11121110
Casey 20 33544322
Mawson 13 32233333
Davis 14 32343332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0110 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan 5 Quiet
02 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed for 30 December
and are expected for the next few days. Isolated Unsettled levels
may be observed at times over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the
UT day and are expected to be mostly normal for the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 42000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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