[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 12 issued 2335 UT on 28 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 29 10:35:18 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly Low for
29 December. Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests
that a CME observed late on the 27th December in association
with a disappearing solar filament is primarily directed northward
up out of the ecliptic plane and is not expected to be significantly
geoeffective. Solar wind conditions have been predominantly low/weak
and are expected to continue at these levels for the next few
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Cocos Island 1 01110011
Darwin 3 11121012
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 6 22-22122
Norfolk Island 2 01110112
Culgoora 3 11111012
Gnangara 5 12122122
Camden 4 11111122
Canberra 0 00010001
Hobart 3 11111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 9 33321122
Mawson 7 22111133
Davis 9 23232222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 5 Quiet
30 Dec 5 Quiet
31 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed for 28 December and are
expected for the next few days. Isolated Unsettled levels may
be observed at times over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the
UT day and are expected to be mostly normal for the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 21500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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