[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 12 issued 2338 UT on 22 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 23 10:38:15 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/66 120/66 120/66
COMMENT: Regions 1635((N09E35)) and 1633(S07W13)produced multiple(low
level)C flares over the UT day Dec 22. Region 1635 remains the
most complex region on the visible disc (beta-gamma mag class).
This region may produce isolated M-class flares over the forecast
period. Background X-ray flux steadily increased over the day.
LASCO and STEREO images indicate recent CME activity that is
not earth directed and is not expected to be geo-effective. ACE
data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field remained stable, oscillating in +/-2nT range,
over the period, with no extended southward periods. The solar
wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed over the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Cocos Island 0 0011000-
Darwin 2 11110002
Townsville 4 12221110
Learmonth 4 2212111-
Norfolk Island 2 11100112
Culgoora 1 11010001
Gnangara 3 1111111-
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 3 12110111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 01010000
Casey 11 35311110
Mawson 4 22111102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 002
Planetary 003
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 003
Planetary 003 1111 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 5 Quiet
24 Dec 5 Quiet
25 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels during
the last 24 hours. No CMEs are currently in transit towards the
Earth. Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Quiet over the next
the three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 22 Dec and are
expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day with
MUFs near predicted monthly values. Some degradations observed
at times due to spread F and sporadic E. Expect mostly normal
ionospheric conditions across the region next three days. Slight
chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 64900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list