[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 12 issued 2339 UT on 20 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 21 10:39:04 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous 24 hours
with only B-class flares class x-ray flares. The 3 numbered regions
on the disk remain largely stable, with alpha or beta magnetic
complexity and less than 300 millionths of disc in size, AR1635
shows the most potential for M-class flares but still low. Expect
Low solar activity 20-Dec, with a chance of isolated C-class
flares and low chance of M-class. The solar wind speed raised
slowly to near 500km/sec. IMF Bz was normal, largely in the +/-5nT
range and not conducive to strong IMF-geomagnetic merging.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 12223212
Cocos Island 4 11112211
Darwin 7 22223212
Townsville 9 22223322
Learmonth 10 22323322
Norfolk Island 5 12212212
Culgoora 7 12223212
Gnangara 7 21223222
Camden 8 12323222
Canberra 5 02213211
Hobart 9 12323312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 12 02235321
Casey 20 44533322
Mawson 14 24333332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1211 2110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Dec 5 Quiet
23 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day at mid and low latitudes. Solar wind speed rose again
slowly towards 500km/sec, possibly due to a solar sector change
or the northern hemisphere coronal hole taking effect earlier
than expected. Expect Quiet-Unsettled conditions 21 Dec. The
three active regions on the disc currently constitute very low
geomagnetic disturbance threat from their size, magnetic complexity
and position..
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
22 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF frequencies were near monthly medians over the last
24 hours at mid latitudes. At northern near-equatorial latitudes
there was more variability than usual, with a large daytime enhancements
NW and NE of Australia due to activity in the equatorial anomaly.
T-index rose in response to newly rotated AR16365 adding EUV.
Expect MUFs on 20-Dec to average near predicted monthly values.
Some MUF variability possible at mid-latitudes as the solar wind
speed has picked up earlier than expected from a coronal hole
and a slight rise in geomagnetic activity to Quiet-Unsettled
levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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