[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 12 issued 2332 UT on 16 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 17 10:32:35 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous 24 hours. The
numbered regions on the disk remain largely stable. Expect Low
solar activity 17-Dec, with a chance of isolated C-class flares.
The solar wind speed remains near 400km/s. A sustained period
of mildly southwards directed IMF (IMF Bz~-5nT) was observed
03-11UT 15-Dec. ACE EPAM energetic ions dropped back below event
level after yesterdays mild enhancement.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 21122222
Cocos Island 5 21212221
Darwin 5 20112222
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 10 22233322
Norfolk Island 4 11121112
Culgoora 5 11122221
Gnangara 6 21122222
Camden 6 21122222
Canberra 3 10121111
Hobart 6 12222221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 11124111
Casey 15 45322222
Mawson 14 33233333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2212 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 12 Unsettled
18 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet over the UT day.
Expect Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions day 1 (17 Dec),
with isolated Active periods, and a return to mostly Quiet conditions
days 2 and 3 (18-19 Dec).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were variable over the last 24 hours.
Some degraded HF conditions were observed at southern locations
during the day. Overall, MUFs were mildly depressed during the
local day, particularly after local dawn, and near predicted
monthly values to mildly enhanced overnight. Expect similar conditions
17-Dec, with mild MUF depressions during the day, particularly
at S.Aus locations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 64600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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