[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 12 issued 2344 UT on 30 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 1 10:44:56 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Regions 1620((S13W81) and 1625((N14E36)produced multiple
C flares,the greatest magnitude being a C5.4 from region 1620
at 17485UT. This region, previously a complex beta-gamma-delta
region, has decayed in size and complexity. Most C-class(low-level)flares
originated from region 1625.This region is classified Dao with
a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Expect mostly C-class flares
with a chance of M-class flares, possibly from regions 1620 and
1625 over the next few days. No Earthward directed CMEs were
observed over the period. ACE parameters doesn't appear to indicate
the arrival of the forecast CME of 27 Nov. The solar wind conditions
remain ambient. A small coronal hole wind stream may increase
the solar wind speed 01-02 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11121111
Darwin 6 22222122
Townsville 5 1222112-
Learmonth 5 21132111
Alice Springs 4 2112111-
Norfolk Island 2 10120011
Culgoora 2 10121011
Gnangara 4 2112211-
Camden 3 11121111
Canberra 1 10020000
Hobart 2 11121001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 9 33422110
Mawson 6 3222120-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet levels during
the last 24 hours. Chance of Unsettled periods at low to mid
latitudes and isolated Active intervals at high latitudes days
one and two due to an anticipated mild coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions may occur at times over the
forecast period in response to possible elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values during 30 Nov.
Mild depressions may occur at times during 1-2 Dec in response
to possible elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 24900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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