[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 12 issued 2329 UT on 29 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 30 09:29:58 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity has been at Low levels over the
past 24 hours. The most significant X-ray flare was a C4 at around
20UT, originating around the south-west limb. The solar wind
spped decayed slightly from 550-450km/s over the day with near
neutral IMF Bz. Flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels
over the next 3 days. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to come into effect late on day 1 of the forecast period, the
30th of August, remaining in effect through the 31st then waning
on the 1st of September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100101
Darwin 2 12100102
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 4 22111201
Norfolk Island 1 11000110
Camden 1 11100101
Canberra 1 01000101
Hobart 1 01100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island - --------
Casey - --------
Mawson 8 33411001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1001 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug 12 Unsettled
01 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are currently Quiet. A coronal hole
high speed stream in expected to cause Unsettled conditions from
late on the 30th and into the 31st of August with a chance of
isolated Active periods. These conditions should started to settle
back to mostly Quiet from the 1st of September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Local daytime MUFs are near predicted monthly values
for central and southern Australia and mildly depressed in northern
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 68600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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