[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 12 issued 2353 UT on 25 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 26 09:53:36 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. One C1.7
flare was observed at 0236UT from region 1554(N15W00). As previously
anticipated, the coronal hole effect kept the solar wind stream
stronger than normal. Solar wind speed gradually increased from
440 km/s to 600 km/s between 0200 and 0600UT today, and then
stayed enhanced between 500 km/s and 600 km/s during the remaining
parts of the UT day. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-6
nT for most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected
to be very low with some possibility of C-class flare activity
for the next 3 days. The currently in-progess effect of the coronal
may be expected to weaken to bring back the solar wind stream
to normal levels by 27 August. The effect of another coronal
hole may then start to strengthen the solar wind stream from
28 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 23233322
Darwin 10 23232322
Townsville 11 23233322
Learmonth 11 33223322
Norfolk Island 6 12222222
Camden 10 22233322
Canberra 10 23233321
Hobart 11 23233322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 12 02443321
Casey 15 35322223
Mawson 29 34444355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 69 (Active)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2322 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 10 Unsettled
27 Aug 6 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
were observed today with some active periods on high latitudes.
Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal
hole, mostly unsettled with some possibility of isolated active
periods may be expected on 26 August. Geomagnetic activity may
then be expected to gradually decline to quiet to unsettled levels
on 27 August as the current effect of the coronal hole is expected
to weaken around that time. Effect of another coronal hole may
again raise the geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels on 28
August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
28 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
on low latitudes today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may
be observed on 26 and at times on 28 August due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 27 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 57 Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 57 Depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
on low latitudes today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may
be observed on 26 and at times on 28 August in the Australian/NZ
regions due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on 27 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 56100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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