[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 12 issued 2354 UT on 23 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 24 09:54:32 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Very Low Very Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Only some low B-class flares were observed. Solar wind speed
mostly varied between 380 and 440 km/s today. The Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-5 nT, staying southwards for relatively
longer periods of time during the UT day today. Solar activity
is expected to be very low to low over the next 3 days. A high
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole may strengthen the
solar wind stream from late hours of 25 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22322221
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 9 22332222
Learmonth 9 33223221
Norfolk Island 8 23322220
Camden 7 22322221
Canberra 6 12232220
Hobart 9 22333221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
Macquarie Island 11 133-----
Casey 9 332221--
Mawson 27 44343363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1211 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 5 Quiet
25 Aug 7 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
were observed today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
on 24 and most parts of 25 August. A rise in geomagnetic activity
levels to unsettled level late on 25 August and unsettled to
active levels on 26 August may be expected due to the effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs were observed
today on mid latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
on most locations for the next 2 days. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions may be observed on the 3rd day due an expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels around this time.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed
on mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions on most locations
may be expected for the next 2 days with the possibility of minor
to moderate MUF depressions on the 3rd day due to an expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels around this time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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