[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 12 issued 2332 UT on 19 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 20 09:33:00 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 18/2323UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Active
region 1548 which on 18-Aug produced four M-class flares, has
reduced in activity. On 19-Aug, it emitted C2 flares early in
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be low over the next
3 days, with a small chance of M-class flares. A shock in the
solar wind at ~08UT coincided with the onset of a coronal hole
high speed wind stream and a 5-hour IMF Bz southward excursion
to a as far as -12nT. The solar wind speed has since increased
to ~600km/s. Bz has varied between +/-8nT since 18UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 22233212
Darwin 9 23233212
Townsville 12 23333223
Learmonth 10 33233212
Norfolk Island 8 22233212
Camden 10 22243212
Canberra 9 12243212
Hobart 9 12243112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
Macquarie Island 25 02166412
Casey 11 33333212
Mawson 10 22234212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 1322 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet to unsettled over
the last 24 hours, with an active period after 09UT following
the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. Activity is expected
to be quiet to unsettled for the next 2 days, returning to quiet
levels on 22-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 17 August
and is current for 18-20 Aug (SWFs). Over the last 24 hours,
nighttime MUFs were depressed in the northern Australian region
as were daytime MUFs in the south. Near monthly predicted MUFs
are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 33900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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