[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 12 issued 2337 UT on 24 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 25 09:37:42 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours,
with C-class flares from region 1462, now off the disc, and from
new regions 1469 (S21E68) and 1467 (N14E72). A CME associated
with the flare from region 1467 was first observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 24/0812UT and is not expected to be geoeffective.
Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with a chance
of M-class activity. Effects of a coronal hole high-speed stream
occurred earlier than expected, raising the solar wind speed
to ~450 km/s from ~03UT. The wind speed has since increased to
range between 500-650km/s. A prolonged period of negative IMF
Bz occurred until ~05UT. Another such period started at ~15UT
and is still current.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Unsettled to Active with
isolated Quiet periods
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 15 33413333
Darwin 17 44412333
Townsville 18 43423343
Learmonth 15 43323333
Norfolk Island 12 33412232
Camden 15 33413333
Canberra 12 33312333
Hobart 18 34413343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
Macquarie Island 26 44515343
Casey 14 33432233
Mawson 83 77432386
Davis 40 55432374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 30 2342 2466
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 20 Unsettled to Active
26 Apr 25 Active
27 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed
over the Australian region, with isolated quiet periods. Antarctic
conditions varied from quiet to major storm levels. Disturbed
conditions are likely for the next 3 days due to a combination
of continuing coronal hole effects and the expected impact on
26-Apr of the CME from 23-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Fair-poor
26 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
COMMENT: Periods of poor Antarctic region HF propagation conditions
are expected to continue for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 85 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during
local daytime with some nighttime depressions in Northern regions.
Depressions observed in Southern Australia, with spread-F from
15-20UT. MUFs are expected to be around predicted monthly values
for the remainder of the forecast period with mild depressions
due to continuing geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 54800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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