[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 12 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 23 09:30:15 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with several C1 flares.
A filament eruption was seen in SDO imagery in the south western
limb of the Sun at around 1345UT. An associated CME is visible
in SOHO and STEREO images but does not appear to be Earth directed.
The solar wind speed is ranging around 340 km/s. The IMF Bz component
was southward by up to 8nT prior to 09UT after which it ranged
between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the
next 3 days with some chance of isolated M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 23222211
Darwin 7 32222112
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 8 32232221
Norfolk Island 4 22221110
Camden 8 33222211
Canberra 4 13220100
Hobart 7 23222221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
Macquarie Island 11 23343210
Casey 9 33331120
Mawson 22 55432241
Davis 17 53432231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1001 1243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 7 Quiet
24 Apr 7 Quiet
25 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated Unsettled activity occurred prior to 12UT after
which conditions were Quiet. Conditions are expected to be mostly
Quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Good HF propagation conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during
local daytime with daytime enhancements of up to 15% seen during
local day in Northern regions. MUFs are expected to be around
predicted monthly values for the remainder of the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 57000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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