[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 12 issued 2334 UT on 02 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 3 09:34:25 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low and is expected to
be Low on 3-5 April. Only a B class X-ray flare was observed
and active regions are stable with low complexity. Old AR1429
from early March has largely dissipated on this rotation and the
largest spot group AR1445 is also quiet. Solar wind speeds
ranged between 340-380 km/s during the past 24 hours.
IMF Bz was southwards for most of the day, conducive to merging
with the geomagnetic field. A weak CME from slightly east of
the central meridian was observed ~0230UT and appears to have
an earthward directed component although it is predominantly
northwards. The CME may cause a weak geomagnetic disturbance
5th April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22213312
Darwin 7 22222312
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 7 22113312
Norfolk Island 5 22212211
Camden 6 22223201
Canberra 4 11103201
Hobart 8 22223312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
Macquarie Island 15 13245321
Casey 13 23523212
Mawson 29 54423336
Davis 13 33333322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1211 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 5 Quiet
04 Apr 5 Quiet
05 Apr 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was been at Quiet to Unsettled
levels for the Australian region. The extended IMF Bz caused
some Active to Storm levels high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days
with Unsettled levels possible for 5 April with passage from
a weak CME launched 2 April ~0230UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly near
predicted monthly values. Southerly site MUFs were a little depressed
due to high latitude geomagnetic activity and northern near equatorial
sites were more variable than the centre of the region. MUFs
are expected to remain mostly near predicted monthly values for
3-4th April. Some slight depression of MUFs possible on 5 April
if a weak CME causes a geomagnetic disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 42100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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