[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 18 09:52:10 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Regions 1289(N22W67) and 1290(S13W84) produced two C-class
events over the last 24 hours,the largest one was a long duration
C2.6 flare from region 1289 at 2354UT. LASCO and SOHO imagery
showed a CME at around 2354 UT associated with the long duration
C flare. Solar activity is expected to be Low with a chance of
isolated M-class flares for the next 3 days. A weak shock was
observed in ACE solar data at around 0255 UT, solar wind speed
increased from 350 Km/s to 450Km/s with an increase in density
and temperature. The IMF Bz fluctuated between -/+10 nT with
extended southward periods(up to -13nT)over the last 24 hours.
This is suggestive of the glancing blow from the CME observed
on 14 September. Solar wind speed is expected to be disturbed
on day one, declining over day two as the CME influence abates.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0256UT on
17 Sep.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1283 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 25 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 18 13444432
Darwin 23 24444443
Townsville 19 23444432
Learmonth 32 24555452
Alice_Springs 20 23445332
Norfolk_Island 13 13433331
Gnangara 23 23445442
Camden 18 03444432
Canberra 16 03444332
Hobart 21 13445432
Macquarie_Island 17 023--542
Casey 15 3--43332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Sep 7 Quiet
20 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased to Active and Minor Storm
levels with Major Storm periods at high latitude following the
weak sock passage at 255UT. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be predominately Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active periods
for the Australian region and some Storm periods at High latitudes
for the next 24 hours.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 17 Sep, a weak (13nT) impulse
was observed at 0344UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 70 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
19 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFS ranging from 15-25% were observed for
the AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. MUFs are expected to be near monthly
values over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 62200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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