[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 13 09:52:15 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours and is
expected to be Low with the chance of M-class flares for the
next 3 days. Region 1292(N08E52) and newly numbered region 1295(N21E72)produced
several C-class flares the largest being C9.9 at 2054 UT from
region 1295. The solar wind speed has mostly varied between 580-660
Km/s over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz mostly varied between
+/-5nT staying southwards (around -6 nT) between 14UT and 21UT.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the next
2 days due the effect of a recurrent coronal hole.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1283 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 25 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 18 33343343
Darwin 15 33333333
Townsville 16 33343333
Learmonth 21 33344443
Alice_Springs 14 22343333
Norfolk_Island 15 33343332
Gnangara 18 32343443
Camden 16 33343333
Canberra 15 23343333
Hobart 21 33443443
Macquarie_Island 28 334-5-53
Casey 21 4-443343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 73 (Active)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice_Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 194 (Severe storm)
Canberra 78 (Active)
Hobart 99 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3211 3213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 12 Unsettled
14 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated, mostly Unsettled to Active conditions
for the Australian region with minor and major storm periods
in Antarctica were observed today. Conditions are expected to
remain enhanced up to Unsettled levels with isolated active periods
for the next 2 days due to the effect of the high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole with activity declining
thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be slightly degraded at
times over the next few days as the result of enhanced geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Some
MUF depressions were observed particularly during local night.
Day time propagation conditions are expected to be good for the
next 3 days with possible night time depressed periods.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 595 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 152000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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