[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 8 09:30:31 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.8 2238UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours. An impulsive
X1.8 flare observed at 07/2238 was probably from region 1238
(N14W32). Further analysis of this event is required. Regions
1283 and 1289 (N24E66) earlier produced B and C-class events.
Continued activity from these regions is likely. The CME associated
with the X2 flare of 06/2220 was mostly directed above Earth's
orbital plane but appears likely to be mildly geoeffective from
late 09Sep. Solar activity is expected to be Moderate to High
over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed mostly varied between
380-440km/s and the IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT over the
UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22122112
Darwin 5 22112013
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 4 11122112
Gnangara 4 12112121
Camden 4 21122002
Canberra 2 10012001
Casey 9 33322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1222 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 18 Unsettled to Active
10 Sep 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with some Active periods
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 6 September
and is current for interval 8-9 September Geomagnetic activity
was mostly Quiet over the last 24 hours, with brief periods to
Storm levels observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions are expected for 08Sep, with some Active periods from
09Sep. Storm periods are expected in Antarctic region over the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: A brief short-wave fadeout was observed associated with
the X1 flare at 07/2238. CME effects are likely to degrade high-latitude
HF conditions at times over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 6 September
and is current for interval 8-9 September Observed MUFs were
mostly near predicted values over the last 24 hours. Large MUF
enhancements in Niue Island region overnight, with some depressed
nighttime periods in Cocos Island region. MUFs are expected to
be mostly near monthly predicted values over the next 3 days,
with mild depressions likely at high latitudes due to CME effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 76400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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