[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 6 09:29:21 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0416UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0758UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours,
with M1 flares at 05/0428 and 05/0758UT from region 1286 (N20W84).
CMEs observed in LASCO imagery at 05/0048 and 05/0336 appear
not to be geoeffective. Regions 1283 (N14W03) showed signs of
growth and increased magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected
to remain Low over the next 3 days, with a chance of further
M-class events. The solar wind speed declined from ~400km/s to
~320km/s, then from 07UT climbed gradually to reach ~450km/s.
The IMF Bz varied from -7nT to +5nT during the UT day. The solar
wind speed is expected to decline slightly from 06Sep as coronal
hole effects abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22111232
Darwin 7 12212232
Townsville 9 22222332
Learmonth 6 12112231
Gnangara 8 11111342
Camden 5 21101232
Canberra 2 21000121
Casey 9 23311232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2321 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 5 Quiet
07 Sep 5 Quiet
08 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled over
the last 24 hours, with brief periods to Major Storm levels observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 57 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some depressed MUF periods observed in low equatorial
regions, with daytime depressions in Northern AUS. Mostly normal
conditions elsewhere. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted
values over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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